AJ Dybantsa has the highest Ceiling in the 2026 NBA Draft?
Shortly after reclassifying in 2023, Aj Dybantsa was heralded as the #1 player in the 2026 NBA Draft class. It's now 2025, and he's still the favorite to go #1
A few days ago, I asked Twitter which of the consensus top three prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft has the highest ceiling.
The answers were pretty much what I expected.
Of the 76 responses, Aj Dybantsa was chosen 41 times (54%), Darryn Peterson was selected 18 times and Cameroon Boozer 17 times (22%).
The poll's sample is tiny, but I think it reflects how most people view the pecking order between the three prospects.
I have Dybantsa ranked third, slightly behind Boozer and Peterson.
However, I agree with my Survey findings, as long as Dybantsa can improve some areas of his game.
Let's explore why I think he has a strong argument for the highest ceiling in the class and what he needs to do to reach it.
Dybantsa is Dynamic
Dybantsa has been compared to Hall of Famers such as Paul George and Tracy McGrady. I don’t think the comparisons are perfect, but his talent level warrants comparison to two of the best bucket-getters in the last 25 years.
He’s just that good.
The wing is arguably the best scorer in the draft. In his lone season at Utah Prep, he averaged 26.4 PPG on 63 percent true shooting. Those numbers are impressive on face value, but are more astounding when considering his usage, shot diet and the attention he received from defenses regularly.
Dybantsa himself has said he models his game after Kevin Durant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which is somewhat apparent in his play.
Like Durant, Dybantsa has a very high release point and ample elevation on his jumpers, making it almost impossible for his high-school defenders to challenge his shots on pull-ups.
As a senior, he was among the best isolation scorers in the country at 1.048 points per possession on 186 attempts.
Being able to score efficiently without a screen is a standard prerequisite for NBA-level offensive engines, and Dybansta has that down pat.
The future Cougar is a free-flowing, flexible scorer who never sees a shot he doesn’t love. Dybantsa wins with a blend of aggression and finesse and intersects physicality with skill.
The wing has great wiggle for his size and uses pristine footwork, a violent jab step, and a strong spin move to create shots from every spot on the floor.
Dybantsa is a relentless driver in transition and the half-court. He almost harpoons himself towards the rim in reckless abandon and never shies away from contact. The Massachusetts native generated 1.104 PPP on drives last season.
When Dybantsa wants to win with his athleticism and size, he does, leading to many foul calls. Dybantsa definitely watches a lot of Gilgeous-Alexander because he’s already a great foul-baiter. He ended the year at 69 percent at the rim in the half-court with a 45.5 free-throw rate and drew shooting fouls on 19.7% of his drives.
Dybantsa had very high usage at Prolific, and rightfully so. He’s very good with the ball but offers utility as an off-ball scorer. Dybantsa is adept at attacking closeouts and executing second-side actions. He can also be used in BLOB and SLOB plays.
I expect Kevin Young to find unique ways to use him in BYU’s offense and maximize his athleticism and shooting gravity. This idea can manifest in off-ball screens and curated lobs for Dybantsa.
In totality, Dybantsa is a pretty complete and dynamic scorer. He’s a growing jumpshooter (35.2% 3PT on 6.2 attempts per game) with a rumored 42-inch vertical who may be close to six feet ten inches.
Dybantsa can score at every level, gets to the foul line often, and is a weapon in transition. He’s among the best scoring prospects of this generation, and that alone makes him a special prospect with a ridiculously high ceiling.
However, he must consistently affect games in multiple ways to reach that ceiling and maintain his spot as the class's #1 player.
The game is about a bucket, but…
Individual scoring will forever be essential in basketball, but the main goal of every possession should be to find the best possible shot for the team.
As I’ve discussed, Dybantsa is excellent at getting shots for himself, but he’s still growing as a creator for others. The rising freshman finished his senior season with a 1.19 AST/TO ratio.
Dybantsa is more of a reactive passer and can sometimes overdribble and miss open teammates to score.
Most of Dybantsa’s passes look like the ones below, where he drives to the rim, draws multiple defenders and then finds a teammate for a bucket.
He’s also still growing as a pick-and-roll operator from a scoring and facilitating standpoint, generating just 0.775 PPP on those opportunties. Dybantsa needs to continue to grow with reading the low man and making interior passing deliveries.
Furthermore, I think Dybantsa can work on his shot selection. He tends to force contested jumpers when he can not create space with his handle (which needs to be tightened) or overpower a defender with his athleticism vs set defenses.
Dybantsa knows he can take and make tough shots, but often takes jumpers early into the possession or over multiple defenders.
He’s pretty comfortable going to these looks in the mid-range, but not very efficient at the moment, as he shot just 30% on two-point jumpers.
Dybantsa’s shot selection is a mild concern. It’s a common theme for high-usage NBA prospects on high-school teams where they are far and away the best source of offense. The issue could be ironed out when he plays in a more structured context under Young.
Aside from cleaning up his shot selection and improving as a passer and decision maker, I believe the key to Dybantsa reaching his ceiling is becoming a more consistent and impactful defender.
At 6-foot-9 with a rumored 7-foot-1 wingspan, Dybantsa has the size and length to be a high-impact team defender. When dialed in, he’s shown the ability to be disruptive and take the challenge of guarding Peterson in their matchups this season.
Dybantsa seems to have taken a bit more pride in his defense over the last year, but he’s still a step behind Peterson and Boozer in terms of his motor and event creation (1.6 STL + 0.8 BLKS).
His primary role at Prolific was a help defender, but he was inconsistent when he was not directly involved in actions. An inconsistent motor off the ball isn’t rare amongst young, high-usage scorers on the high school level, but it is a big part of why I have him a slight step behind Peterson and Boozer.
Below is a good example of Dybantsa’s occasional idleness on defense. He’s floating in no-man’s land, and if he reacts to this post entry sooner, he can use his length and athleticism to alter the shot.
In addition to these lapses, he's prone to losing his man off the ball and not giving full effort when closing out.
Even when he is on the ball at the point of attack, his posture (high hips) and intensity often leave much to be desired. His screen navigation needs real improvement—he can get hung up too easily or take inefficient angles—and once he’s beaten, he can be slow to re-engage or recover back into the play.
These aren't uncommon flaws for a player carrying such a massive offensive burden, but they are nonetheless notable, especially when projecting his two-way impact at the next level.
To close, I want to reaffirm why I still view Dybantsa as a top-tier prospect with arguably the highest ceiling in the 2026 class. His blend of size, skill, athleticism, relentless scoring, and versatility is rare.
These tools make the case for his long-term upside and validate the results of the Twitter poll—if he can round out the rest of his game. That means becoming a more consistent and engaged defender, growing as a playmaker, tightening his handle and creating more efficient looks. Dybantsa must show off more ancillary skills, such as offensive rebounding and moving off the ball. If he can check those boxes, there's a real chance we're looking at the next elite NBA wing.