My Love and Hate Relationship with Bennett Stirtz
Bennett Stirtz and his Bulldogs ripped my heart out in March, but I love him as a NBA Draft prospect and he's one of the best returners in the country.
I remember the day like it was yesterday.
I walked into the enterprise center with an emptiness in my gut.
I was nervous, truthfully.
It was March 9th, an hour before the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) Tournament Championship game, and it felt like the weight of the world was on my shoulders as if I was suiting up to play in the game.
My school, Bradley, was preparing to play Drake for a spot in the NCAA tournament.
They say it’s a reporter's job to remain unbiased, but there’s nothing I wanted more than for the Braves to win that game and make their first NCAA tournament since 2020.
Since I was a kid, it’s been my dream to watch a March Madness game in person and feel the emotions as the team I’m covering tries to embark on a Cinderella run.
Bennett Stirtz took that dream away from me.
He led his team of Bulldogs to a 63-48 win and did it in dominant fashion, scoring 24 points, four rebounds, and four assists on 76.7 true shooting.
Bradley couldn’t speed him up or turn him over, and even when they did play great defense, it didn’t matter.
With every pull-up jumper, a part of that dream died, and a realization set in.
This is an NBA player they’re losing to.
That realization made the loss easier to deal with, and I even quietly rooted for Drake during March Madness as they represented the MVC during the tournament.
A week later, Stirtz put on another show, this time with the whole country watching, and the player I saw dominate a conference was on display for millions to see.
After their run ended against Texas Tech, Stirtz decided to forego entering the draft and followed his coach to Iowa to play in the Big Ten with hopes of building a stronger profile against high-major competition and raising his stock.
But during his lone season at Drake, his statistical profile was one of the best I’ve seen since I began scouting, and easily that of an NBA player.
Here’s a simple query for efficient guards that have been impactful as offensive engines.
The finding includes names like Stephen Curry, Tyrese Haliburton, Ja Morant, Lonzo Ball, and Ty Lawson.
Of course, I’m not projecting him to be a Hall of Famer, and he has meaningful differences that set him apart from said players, but I do think he’s one of the best returners in the nation and should be at the top of draft boards heading into next season.
Here’s why.
Sticky fingers and High Feel
Before I break down Stirtz's work, I want to show how impactful he was last year using Hoop Explorer, one of the best tools available for measuring advanced analytics.
Pictured below is the Stirtz on/off report. It looks like a bunch of random numbers, but it perfectly represents his on-court performance.
According to Hoop Explorer, Drake scored 114.6 points per 100 possessions with Stirtz on the floor and 88.3 points with him off. The Bulldogs also had a +15.9 net rating with him on and a -10.3 net rating with him off, which is obviously a drastic swing.
It’s worth noting that Stirtz played a ridiculous amount of minutes for Drake, so the on-sample is much more relevant than the off.
In his time on the court, he was the lone source of offense for Drake. He handled that usage extremely well. Stirtz posted a 34 assist percentage, which ranked 35th in the country. Among the players with at least 30 assist percentage, Stirtz’s 13.1 turnover percentage ranked 4th lowest.
His historic turnover avoidance was partly due to Drake’s style of play, as they were one of the slowest teams in the country, but the feat is still impressive considering how much he drove the ball and ran pick-and-roll.
Stirtz drove the ball 122 times and turned it over twice. He ran 708 possessions of pick-and-roll and turned it over just 77 times.
An excellent chart from Swish Theory’s Matt Powers illustrates Stirtz’s outlier turnover avoidance. You want to be on the left side of this chart.
The star guard wasn’t just avoiding turnovers, but creating an extremely high level out of the pick-and-roll. He does an excellent job reacting to hedges, traps and reading the low man. Last season, he generated 1.007 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball handler (98th percentile frequency + 82nd percentile efficiency).
Stirtz is so good in the pick-and-roll because he has a great pace and doesn’t overdribble. He gets off the ball quickly, in a way that reminds me of Haliburton.
As a scorer in the pick-and-roll, he utilizes his floater well and takes mid-range looks when the defense gives it to him. When watching Stirtz as the season waned, you could see Stirtz getting more confident as a scorer, and he hit big shots in big moments. He ended the season shooting a blistering 37.3% on pull-up 3’s ( 40.6% from 3 in PNR).
Defenders often went under on screens against Stirtz, so his continued growth as a shooter will be paramount. Opposing coaches chose that because allowing Stirtz to get into the paint and create for himself or others meant a death wish.
Stirtz finished 67% of shots at the rim on a largely unassisted shot diet, a theme throughout his shot diet.
The guard doesn’t kill with outlier speed or above-the-rim finishing, but he has a deceptive change of pace and excellent touch around the rim.
He’s frequently been given the “sneaky athletic,” commonly given to a particular player demographic, but Stirtz’s ability to explode into drives is genuinely underrated.
His handle is tight and dynamic, and his low center of gravity allows him to react quicker than the defense, even when they try to knock him off balance.
Stirtz, at six feet four inches, also has good positional size and could improve his driving by adding to his 185-lb frame.
I’ve talked a lot about Stirtz's ability to work with a screen, but he was also one of the best players in the country without one. He isolated 81 times last season, shot 43% and generated 1.136 PPP (93rd percentile frequency + 90th percentile efficiency).
Despite his responsibility on offense, Stirtz still found a way to be a productive defender.
Not only did he avoid turnovers on offense, but he also created them on defense and didn’t foul often. The guard had a 3.5 steal percentage and 81 total steals on the year while fouling just 50 times.
He held pick-and-roll ball handlers to 39.8 percent shooting and guarded defenders well in isolation, but I would give a decent amount of credit to the defensive ecosystem he was in.
Drake was one of the best defenses in the country and played an ultra-aggressive style of defense that created a lot of turnovers.
Still, Stirtz played a part in that and has pathways to being a solid team defender. His role reminds me of a rangy zone corner that’s good at baiting quarterbacks and grabbing picks.
The Missouri Native has excellent hands and instincts, as shown below.
As much as I reluctantly admired Stirtz's game as I watched him dominate in March, he’s not a perfect prospect. So, before I pencil him into NBA rotations, it’s worth noting that taking a closer look at areas of his game that cause concern.
Ceiling Limiters?
One of my biggest questions for Stirtz is his three-point volume. He attempted 7.8 three-point attempts per 100 possessions, which is solid, especially considering how he gets to the rim and creates for others. However, before he arrived at Drake, he shot 32% on three attempts per game.
Stirtz was streaky to begin the year but shot 49.4 percent from three over his final 17 games. Generating more volume and improving consistency will be key to reaching higher outcomes.
Another area worth monitoring is his athletic profile. While Stirtz has a strong frame, good change of pace, and excellent body control, he’s very much a below-the-rim finisher. That’s not inherently disqualifying—plenty of great guards operate without elite vertical burst—but it could cap some of his upside as a finisher and defender.
The numbers reflect that: he recorded just two total dunks in the halfcourt all season, and his 2.2% offensive rebound rate and 0.9% block rate are well below average for a 6'4" guard.
His ability to finish through contact and manipulate angles helps offset this. Still, he’ll deal with longer, more athletic rim protectors in the Big Ten and the next level, which could give him more trouble.
The final (and maybe most important) question is scalability.
Stirtz was the sun at Drake, and the rest of the team revolved around him. He touched the ball on nearly every possession, controlled tempo, and made almost every decision. That may not be the case in the NBA early on.
Can he still be effective if asked to play off the ball more? Can he space the floor, make quick decisions, and guard at a high level without constant rhythm touches?
I think the answer to these questions, to some degree, is yes. Stirtz wasn’t as inactive off the ball as some suggest. He moved off the ball into handoffs and had a few cuts on film as well. It also doesn’t hurt to shoot 45 percent on catch-and-shoot threes.
The questions surrounding Stirtz do have some merit. He will also be a 23-year-old rookie, which puts a theoretical cap on the long-term upside. But what he does matters.
He protects the ball. He takes it away from you. And in today’s game, that’s a winning formula.
This idea was fully displayed in June as the Thunder and Pacers, two of the league’s best at controlling turnovers, battled for the championship.
Stirtz’s game isn’t the most exciting or aesthetically pleasing, but he is efficient, and the shot he makes at the end of the shot clock makes life miserable for opponents.
Believe me—I know.
I still think about that Sunday evening when Bradley’s chance at an NCAA tournament appearance was flushed down the toilet.
I hated every second of it. But now? I can’t help but respect it.
The Braves will have their chance again this year.
And at least he’s not the MVC’s problem anymore.
He’s the Big Ten’s.