Karim Lopez is ready to make history
Just six players of Mexican heritage have made it to the NBA. Karim Lopez may be the next.
Mexico, the tenth-most populous country in the world, is known for several things: Beautiful beaches and resorts, exquisite cuisine, art, culture and a rich history.
Its excellent weather, bustling cities and vibrant nightlife make the country a tourist hotspot.
One thing Mexico is not known for?
Basketball.
In a league where one in every four players is of international heritage, and the last five MVPs are from outside the United States, Mexico has yet to make its mark.
Despite being down the street from the United States and boasting one of the largest international markets for the NBA, Mexico has produced just six NBA players, two of whom were born and raised in the US.
The latest, Jaime Jaquez Jr, is the only active player and made history in 2023 as the first Mexican national to be selected in the draft's first round.
In roughly 10 months, Jaquez Jr could have some company.
Enter Karim Lopez, an 18-year-old forward who spent last season in the NBL playing for the New Zealand Breakers. In 23 minutes per game, he averaged 9.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.2 assists on 57.3 TS%.
Lopez’s production in a respected pro league at a young age has bolstered his profile. He’s widely regarded as a top ten prospect in the 2026 NBA Draft and the best draft prospect Mexico has ever had.
Here’s why.
Auxillary animal
It is always notable when a teenage prospect can carve out a role in a pro league, and Lopez spent the entire NBL season as a 17-year-old. He started the season slowly, but over his last 12 games as a starter, he averaged 12.3 points, 4.4 rebounds on 60.1 true shooting percentage.
Lopez’s primary role was an off-ball connective wing. He found a way to be impactful offensively without high usage or significant on-ball reps. Instead, he thrived in some of the more underappreciated aspects of basketball, such as cutting and close-out attacking.
Lopez has an innate ability to recognize soft spots in a defense. If you fall asleep for a second, he will find and occupy the open space. The forward looks to have watched the Heatles in the late 2010s because he executed several slot cuts last season.
Lopez isn't a true offensive initiator or perimeter scorer, but he is excellent against tilted defenses. He’s decisive, strong, has long strides, and has good body control, which enables him to finish 66% of his looks at the rim in the halfcourt.
He has a creative handle, but it needs to be tightened. He’s a bit right-hand dominant, but it has not been a significant issue. On 46 drives last season, he generated 1.239 points per possession and had a 71 true shooting percentage.
Simply put, Lopez does many of the little things that flesh out a profile as a great connective piece. It’s not always the flashiest or most aesthetically pleasing, but he plays hard and adds value offensively in unique ways, such as offensive rebounding.
Lopez’s spatial awareness, motor and athleticism also translate to the defensive end. At 6-foot-8, with what looks to be a + wingspan, Lopez possesses the size and mobility to be an impactful team and individual defender. Lopez posted modest stock numbers (1.4 STL% + 3.9 BLK%), but he’s shown the wherewithal to consistently affect plays on film.
He has excellent mobility for his size and uses it to cover ground and contest shots on the perimeter. Lopez has also shown a propensity to guard multiple positions.
Lopez’s NBL production, athleticism, and ancillary skills set a strong foundation for his top-ten case, but he needs to improve in some key areas to maintain his spot.
Can he be more than a connector?
Lopez's most significant area of improvement is his jump shooting. He shot 30.8 percent from behind the arc on 2.5 assists per game. Fortunately, his catch-and-shoot mechanics are not broken, but he has a slow release and his shot sometimes looks a bit stiff.
Lopez’s lack of pull-up shooting could hurt him if he hopes to become a perimeter creator in the NBA. Teams will go under and force him towards his left hand, but he does not possess outlier speed, burst, or strength to create advantages.
Even on some of Lopez’s converted drives, he’s not creating clean advantages and instead relying on touch and body control.
However, he does have some upside as a shooter. Lopez’s free-throw shooting has improved dramatically over the last two years and now sits at 74%. He ended last season shooting 37 percent in his last 13 outings.
The forward also isn’t a natural playmaker. He’s prone to missing some reads or turning the ball over in traffic, and he’s had limited reps running ball screens. Lopez finished the season with a 1:1 AST/TO ratio and acts primarily as a connective passer or makes a read off his drives.
If Lopez wants to graduate from an off-ball connective role into a legitimate vocal point of an offense, he’ll need to improve as a shooter, shot creator and become a more natural playmaker. Improvements in those areas will strengthen his claim as a top ten pick.
But whether he is a lottery pick or not, he’s likely to make history next summer and become the 7th player of Mexican heritage to play in the NBA.