I'm tired of the Jaylen Brown discourse, but after the Paul George trade I couldn't resist
Many have called the Celtics trading Jaylen Brown to Philly a disaster for Boston and a home run for the 76ers, the truth lies somewhere in between.
As the high of the most entertaining finals of the decade and an eventful NBA Draft have faded, NBA fans have instead been subjected to the mind-numbing discourse that rears its ugly head every offseason.
This year’s moratorium between the draft and free agency was headlined by David West leading the charge against the sport's advancement, claiming that Michael Jordan did things that analytics would dislike and posting a few of my handsome mutuals' faces while calling them geeks for daring to use every tool available to understand the game more deeply.
The 45-year-old’s behavior was provoked by Bobby Marks, who said an NBA executive (whom he did not identify) claimed Jaylen Brown was the 7th-best player on the Celtics.
Most of the internet agreed it was a ridiculous opinion, but instead of ignoring it, Twitter decided to have its thousandth analytics-vs.-eye-test/how-good-is-Jaylen-Brown conversation of the last two years.
I’ve mostly refrained from the conversation on social media because it’s an extremely tired debate in which neither side is willing to argue in good faith, but now that he’s traded, I’ll add to the discourse in the most measured way that I can.
Celtics fans, chill, it’s not the end of the world
Receiving 36-year-old Paul George, who is on a terrible contract and can't stay healthy for Brown, is far less than ideal, but it speaks to how Brown and his contract (and upcoming extension) are viewed around the league. I struggle to believe that Brad Stevens, one of the greatest basketball minds of the millennium, would take this deal if there were far better options available.
Though media members may disagree, the actual decision-makers do not consider him a top-ten player in the sport, nor do they believe he is worth upwards of $70 million annually.
Though not ideal in the slightest, this move is far from a disaster for the Celtics. I don’t think they are championship contenders, but I didn’t think they were after striking out on Giannis, while the East is clearly getting better.
Even in an improved Eastern Conference, the Celtics will easily be a playoff team. Since 2020, the Celtics have had a +9.3 net rating in over ten thousand minutes with Brown off the court and are 42-10 in games without him over the last four years. This is largely due to Jayson Tatum being on the floor when Brown’s off and the Celtics routinely having one of the best rosters in the league.
When he goes to Philly and his on/offs are better because the bench is worse, he likely wouldn’t have improved significantly as a player.
Brad Stevens / Joe Mazulla know how to win regular-season games (even when Stevens may not have wanted to), and they’ve displayed that time and time again.
As many of you reading this know, the Celtics dominated opponents with their All-NBA second-team member off the floor this season, largely due to Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and a bench that smoked opposing second units.
Boston fully leaned into their three-point renaissance this past season and added to it with multiple great positional rebounders to build a possession maximizer’s wet dream.
The addition of Paul George, who is still one of the league’s premier shooters and a good defender, and Mitchell Robinson, one of the league’s best offensive rebounders, will only lean further into the philosophy that helped the team finish as the second-best regular-season team in the East.
Conversely, I do believe the Celtics will miss Brown.
Though he was, in many ways, the antithesis of the style they wanted to play, the team was still amazing when he was on the court. I view his playstyle as a needed change of pace. Throughout his tenure, the one thing he consistently had a positive impact on was the team's offensive true shooting percentage, and was the team’s best isolation/volume, 2-point scorer.
Having a player like Brown who can eat up usage/shots and score at an average-to-slightly-above-average clip allows players to thrive in ancillary roles and to insulate him from weaknesses.
His skill set was increasingly valuable in certain playoff series over the last decade, and he “locked in” on defense (mostly on the ball) in numerous playoff matchups.
While George is not as “washed” as people think, his ability to get to the rim (or score from two) is sapped. Tatum has never been a prolific two-point scorer, and his Achilles injury makes that projection murkier.
I believe the lack of a high-volume two-point scorer will make their offense more monotone and ultimately limit its ceiling come playoff time. Boston will likely rely on Jayson Tatum to carry an on-ball percentage north of 30 for the first time in his career and ask Pritchard to scale up as well. While both have ample data to suggest that increased on-ball usage could be successful, we still need to see it in action.
Ultimately, I think Stevens may have believed that Brown’s relationship was beyond repair and didn’t want to extend him at $70 million per year in his age 33/34 seasons. Instead, Boston’s architect opted to take on George’s contract, which expires a year earlier, and wait for the next big star to become available. How fast can he get that done, and will their window still be open?
More Parades coming to Philly?
Philadelphia made this move as a last-ditch effort to win a championship in the Embiid era. I don’t view the move as one that puts the 76ers firmly in the driver's seat to do so — their championship aspirations will hinge on Embiid’s ability to stay on the floor deep into the playoffs, but it’s a move that you do 10/10.
Brown is a younger, much more athletic player than George and has a significantly lower risk of injury. Though I can recognize that George is still a good role player, his struggles to beat defenders make him an extremely jump-shot-reliant scorer.
With the addition of Brown, Philadelphia, a middle-of-the-pack 2P scoring offense, can stay afloat when Embiid inevitably misses time in the regular season. Brown will also be the 76ers’ best perimeter isolation scorer.
Additionally, I believe he will see a far lower on-ball percentage than he did this season, which, in the past, coincided with better on-ball defense and spot-up effiency. In some ways, he should be positively regressing to who he was from 2020-2023.
However, I’m not the biggest fan of his fit with Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. The starting five is undeniably talented and will win games, but it’s starved for quality playmaking, and Brown won’t help that.
Of the 33 players in the NBA who held a 25 OnBall percent or higher last season (minimum 2000 minutes), Brown’s 13.4 potential assists rank 24th. He also routinely ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in scoring turnover percentage and is limited to drive and kick reads. The lack of high-end playmaking could limit the 76ers' high-end ceiling.
Philadelphia will miss George’s shooting, defensive versatility (though the addition of Dean Wade will help), and connective passing.
The Verdict
In the end, I’m not bullish on the trade for either party. I can understand the 76ers going star hunting regardless of fit, and it’s a move Darryl Morey would have appreciated. But I question how smart it would be to extend Brown at the price point that he will command. And for Boston, I can see why they wouldn’t want to extend Brown and would instead opt for future flexibility and two enticing draft picks, one of which will convey when Brown and Embiid are likely past their prime.
As for my opinion on Brown as a player, I am lower than the consensus because he doesn’t consistently provide enough outside of volume scoring—and you don’t really need analytics to make this point. His off-ball defense has been an issue for years, and he’s only a good on-ball defender when he locks in on certain matchups. Despite playing with great rosters over the last decade, he still hovers around league-average efficiency and has struggled to create for himself or others without turning the ball over. He also does not force many turnovers or get many blocks.
These factors in his individual game have led to the Celtics taking care of the ball more when he is off the court, forcing teams to turn it over more when he is off the court, and holding teams to worse effiency when he is off the court for thousands and thousands of possessions.
Brown is a top 30 player, but he’s extremely flawed. I am interested to see how his time in Philadelphia plays out.